7 a.m. Sunday December 11^th 2011

To quote a good friend Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, “This conference is like a duck in a pond. On the surface, the duck seems calm and boring, but underwater her little feet are kicking like crazy.”

In the past, especially at COP15 in Copenhagen, we witnessed huge expectations fizzle out with minimal effect. By contrast at COP16 in Cancun, there was surprising progress amidst abysmal expectations. This year, the recognition by the global community of the truly intimidating challenge we face has led the COP17 negotiations to develop what Ms. Figueres calls an equitable “global business plan”, to put humanity on a sustainable trajectory. The big question is “will it be enough and will it happen in time?”

In past years, we’ve learned from our attempts at climate mitigation and adaptation, and have become more holistic as we recognize climate change is also about food security, water security, and poverty alleviation. As a result, we’ve made strides toward international co-operation as our common understanding of our collective challenge grows. But in the face of a rapidly approaching deadline for extending the Kyoto Protocol, news that the Earth’s surface will warm faster than expected, and a shrinking four-year window to act before risking irreversible climatic change for our planet, all eyes were on COP17 to finally present a tangible, viable solution.

Canada and many other nations came to Durban with a hard-line approach, refusing to participate in the second commitment period for Kyoto (37 developed countries) unless there was an additional agreement that includes all major emitters, developed and developing, especially India, China, and Brazil. That was accomplished today, as Connie Hedegaard, the European Commissioner for Climate Action said, “we will now get a system that reflects the reality of today’s mutually interdependent world. And as we are interdependent, what we promise to do must have the same legal weight”. The problem is that we wont get that comprehensive system until 2020. By then, it may already be too late.

Called the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action: the new protocol is a framework for an additional legally binding agreement applicable to 195 countries, the details to be negotiated by 2015 and ratified and made effective by 2020. The Polish Minister of Environment, Marcin Korolec, whose country currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, said “This is a moment comparable only to, if not surpassing, the success of COP1 from 1995, when the Berlin Mandate was established, which led to the creation and adoption of the only legally binding international agreement to combat climate change – the Kyoto Protocol. Today, we adopted a Durban Platform, which will lead us to a legally binding agreement being completed by the year 2015 to engage all parties. A lot of hard work has gone to achieve this.”

On the positive front, the Durban Platform makes the Green Climate Fund (GCF) operational by agreeing on its design and management, to a new technology mechanism, as well as adaptation committees for the distribution of the Fund’s annual $100-billion budget, effective by 2020. The GCF’s purpose is to help countries deal with the negative effects of climate change, especially the poorer countries of the Global South, and for its part, Canada pledged $1.2 billion over three years to support meaningful mitigation efforts in developing countries.

But at the same time the Kyoto Protocol is losing support. Peter Kent, our Minister of Environment says, “Canada has been clear that we would not undertake a second Kyoto commitment period. Nor will we devote scarce dollars to capitalize the new Green Climate Fund - part of the Durban agreement - until all major emitters accept legally binding reduction targets and transparent accounting of greenhouse gas inventory.” Despite Canada’s position, the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is set to start on January 1^st 2013. Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary-General, says this “will increase certainty for the carbon market and provides additional incentives for new investments in technology and the infrastructure necessary to fight climate change.” But this will only achieve its full potential if it enjoys widespread support.

Though one can view the Durban Platform as a foundation for a future legislative victory, it’s easy to criticize and say that COP17 fell short of what science and civil society hoped for from a conference hosted in South Africa (climate-justice tweeting that COP 17 succumbs to Climate Apartheid). What was agreed upon were only the principles upon which future negotiations will be based. But there was no commitment to how far and fast countries should be cutting their CO2 emissions, something that we’d hoped for back in Bali at COP13. Those targets still must be negotiated by 2015 and ratified by 2020.

How then do we arrive at an agreement, applicable to all, when some countries like Canada have a high living standard based upon a large carbon footprint that has already contributed greatly to climate change, while other countries like India, China and Brazil who emit far less per capita, are seeking to satisfy the aspirations of their citizens for a better quality of life? And how do we do so in the midst of a global economic recession when traditionally economic growth has been carbon-based economics and now, almost overnight, it must mean something else if we are to avoid all-out climate catastrophe?

The answers to this are not easy. But it is worth noting that the entire world, led by a last-minute deal between the EU and India, at least to finally greed to pursue a common path, despite our 195 nations each coming from very different places.

“While it is clear that these deadlines must be met, countries, citizens and businesses who have been behind the rising global wave of climate action can now push ahead confidently, knowing that Durban has lit up a broader highway to a low-emission, climate resilient future,” said Ms. Figueres, to whom I gave my sandals to in order to give her feet a break from wearing heals. I ended by walking home barefoot like the many do everyday on this continent.

In Africa, they say Ubuntu is the spirit of knowing “I am because you are”. Heaven knows I’m tired and disappointed. The last three nights ended at 1a.m., 5 a.m. and 6 a.m., respectively, and it’s not clear whether these negotiations will lead us to the future we need. But if they do, it will be from recognition of the spirit of Ubuntu. May that spirit continue to shine and guide us.